The last year in Babcock Ranch real estate might have you reading asthmatic French author Marcel Proust’s defining novel Remembrance of Things Past.
Or you could skip an approximately 4000-page book with nearly 2000 characters and watch our latest slickly produced video, informing you that mortgage rates are still high and have you jonesing for a remembrance of things past, like pre-COVID, when home affordability wasn’t a moonshot….
With mortgage rates climbing past 8% and builders sitting on excess inventory, the market underwent a dramatic transformation that absolutely nobody except the Almighty saw coming.
Despite the challenges, Babcock Ranch got gritty and hit a major milestone with its 4,000th home sale. But what’s even more compelling is how the different neighborhoods in The Ranch performed — and which types of properties left some investors scrambling.
Watch & Learn:
* A surprising revelation about Webb’s Reserve that has luxury buyers rushing in — and why time might be running out
* The unexpected truth about rental properties that investors need to hear before making their next move
* Six stunning new parks in MidTown connected by an innovative trail system — including one feature that’s grade-A 100% Florida Man
* Major retail chains and restaurants coming in 2025 that will do so much more than give Ranchers mere optionality
* A game-changing prediction about mortgage rates that could flip the market on its head
* The one factor that could make or break home sales in 2025
Babcock Ranch is barely 20% built out, and the next decade will bring bigly changes.
From new universities to medical facilities and entertainment districts to innovative residential options, this sustainable city is evolving faster than a dog learning how not to chase its tail.
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- Let’s talk Babcock.
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Video Transcript
Are you ready to uncover the next chapter of Life at Babcock Ranch? Whether you’re looking to move, invest or sell, this preview of what’s ahead in 2025 will give you the insights you need to make the best decision.
Hey, I’m John with Team John Garuti EXP Realty and welcome to the channel and if you’re returning, we’re happy to see you once again. 2024 was quite the year in real estate. In this video, we’ll recap the market, share future predictions, highlight exciting 2025 developments, address some rumors and most importantly, offer critical advice for buyers and sellers. Stick around to the end, you won’t want to miss it.
In 2024, the real estate market experienced a significant cooldown driven by several key factors, the primary culprit, mortgage rates. These began climbing rapidly early in ’22 surpassing 7% by January that year, an unprecedented surge and rates remained high throughout ’23, even peaking at 8% towards years end. This two year shock in mortgage rates led to a substantial inventory buildup. Homeowners were reluctant to sell with data showing that over 80% of them held interest rates below 5%. With fewer buyers in the market and an increase in available inventory, we found ourselves in the current market correction.
Here in Babcock Ranch builders faced an additional challenge. They had stockpiled inventory in anticipation of new phase two neighborhoods opening. Unfortunately, this oversupply only intensified the correction. As a result, home prices have dropped significantly. However, for buyers entering the market in ’24, this presented a unique opportunity. There were plenty of options from builders in town, many of whom were offering incentives like interest rate buy downs, reducing rates as much as 2%, covering closing costs and negotiating deals throughout the year. On the other hand, selling a home in this environment was a tough challenge. With such high competition, sellers faced an uphill battle. We’ll dive deeper into what it takes to successfully sell a home in today’s market because let’s face it, the near term outlook isn’t exactly promising.
So here’s some stats you probably want to know. As of December 1st of ’24, 750 new construction homes were sold in Babcock Ranch this year, falling short of the developer’s target of approximately 1200 for the entire year. So for the first time since the town’s inception, fewer new construction homes were sold compared to the previous year. Now, while some might worry that Babcock Ranch is losing its appeal, I can assure you that’s not the case. The slowdown is a reflection of the challenging market conditions caused by ongoing home affordability issues. In fact, this has been the worst real estate market since 1995. Now, on a brighter note, Babcock Ranch recently celebrated the sale of its 4000ths closed home, bringing the total number of homes sold in town to around 4,400. The town has transformed dramatically since I purchased here in November of 2019. Stay tuned for more on those changes later in the video.
This year, the top performing neighborhood was Webb’s Reserve, which makes sense. The primary buyers in the golf course communities tend to be second home buyers, typically wealthier individuals who are less impacted by rising interest rates than the average buyer. With about 20% of the neighborhood already sold, I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire community is sold out within four to five years. Excitingly, Webb’s Reserve will be starting construction on its amenities soon. Permits are already filed, which means new residents shouldn’t face the delays experienced in Babcock National where amenities took over four years to complete. This is fantastic news for future homeowners in Webb’s Reserve, and it just so happens I bought a condo in Webb’s. So if you ever want to play a round of golf, hit me up. Let’s talk about the resale market. As of December 1st ’24, over 136 properties were resold this year. However, when you break down the numbers, only 79 of those were single-family homes while 48 were condos in Babcock National.
It’s clear that many owners were eager to sell their condos in national, and one major reason is likely the opening of the new country club, Webb’s Reserve. Another possible factor, though we don’t have solid data to confirm is the saturation of rentals in Babcock National. And that brings me to a critical point for all you investors. The rental market in Babcock Ranch is oversaturated. So if you’re considering buying a condo or house purely as an investment, you’ll want to do your due diligence. Rental prices have been fluctuating significantly, and the main developer, Kitson & Partners is playing a major role in this dynamic. With the addition of the Canopy Apartments and Flatwoods single-family home rentals, there are a lot of options for renters today. To make matters more challenging, there are rumors that Kitson plans to build up to 3000 apartment units over the course of the Babcock Ranch project.
This has created a rental market with far more supply than demand. And as basic economics tells us, when supply succeeds, demand prices drop. So if you’re thinking of investing in Babcock Ranch, my advice is to do thorough research and focus on a property that truly stands out. Your property needs to offer something unique and compelling to attract renters. If you don’t have a strong selling point, you’ll be forced to compete on price, which is a tough game in today’s oversaturated market. So that wraps up your 2024 recap. If you found this helpful, do me a favor, hit that like button and make sure to subscribe. Team John Garuti has incredible content lined up for 2025 and you won’t want to miss a single update on this channel.
Now let’s dive into the exciting developments coming to Babcock Ranch that continue to make it one of the best places to live in the United States. Don’t just take my word for it. Money Magazine recently named Babcock Ranch, one of the top places to live, and here are just a few more reasons why you’ll want to call this incredible community home. Let’s start with the one of the most exciting updates, the new parks and trails system known as The PKWY. This incredible system spans 313 acres and includes six beautiful parks all connected by a seamless trail network. Starting at the north end of the trail, you’ll find Bluebird Park, a fun playground that kicks off the journey. From there, The PKWY winds south along Babcock Trail linking all six parks together into one stunning linear park. Hillcrest Park is sure to bring out the kid and everyone with its slides and grassy hills perfect for sledding in the winter months. It’s a blast to watch kids race down the big hill. For a more scenic experience, there’s an observation tower that offers panoramic views of phase two of Babcock Ranch.
Next up, the fishing Lagoon, a 3.3 acre area stocked with bass, tilapia, gar and more. Their designated fishing spots around the lagoon for those looking to cast, align and relax. Explorer’s Park scheduled open in early ’25 will be in all-abilities park offering an inclusive space for everyone to enjoy. Down the road, you’ll find the Dog Parks, a must for pet lovers. Maybe they were inspired by Animal Planet’s competition shows, the parks feature fun obstacles for dogs of all sizes split into areas for smaller and larger dogs. And finally, Palmetto Park will feature an exercise area, covered basketball courts, a super sized splash pad, making it the perfect spot for families to cool off and stay active. These parks and trails are just a taste of what’s making Babcock Ranch such an exciting place to live. In other exciting news, the Parks and Rec Department in Babcock Ranch has been growing rapidly.
The William and Mary Ann Smith Sports Complex is now open, located right behind the Babcock School campus. This 23 acre facility includes a variety of sports fields, softball, baseball, track and field football, and even a small skate park. In fact, the town recently hosted its first Friday night football game marking a milestone for the community. The Parks and Rec Department is also offering a variety of fitness classes, including Tai chi, Jiu-Jitsu for kids, salsa, yoga and more. With memberships starting at just $75 per family for the year, it’s an affordable way to get active and involved. If you want to stay up to date on all the happenings, we highly recommend subscribing to the Parks and Rec newsletter. Check out the link in the description below for more details. It’s been fantastic to see all these new amenities and recreational activities come into Babcock Ranch mean. Just a year ago, none of this existed, and now the town is continuously improving with each year, bringing even more exciting developments.
These additions truly complement the vision of Babcock Ranch, fostering an active and healthy lifestyle for families. It’s incredible to watch this community grow, and the best part, it’s only going to get better from here. Now let’s dive into all the exciting developments in commercial real estate, there’s a lot of change happening. First up, the Yellow Pine Shopping Center is set to open in Q1 of 2025. This new center will bring a variety of big box stores to Babcock Ranch, including Marshall’s, Ace Hardware, Five Below, HomeGoods, and Ulta Beauty. Additionally, Tampa General Hospital will be adding 12,000 square feet of medical office space, which will include an urgent care center. There’s also a range of new dining options coming your way, such as Panera Bread, Five Guys, Jersey Mike’s, Carvel, and Oar & Iron. These new businesses will bring even more convenience and variety to the community, making Babcock Ranch an even more desirable place to live and visit.
In addition to the Yellow Pine Shopping Center, we’re also seeing the extension of Founders Square called B Street, which is set to begin construction soon. This exciting development will feature 77,000 square feet of ground floor retail space, and B Street will become the hub for arts and entertainment in Babcock Ranch. It’s an incredibly exciting addition to the community and we expect B Street to be completed and operational in 2026. If you’re interested in securing a commercial lease in Babcock Ranch, feel free to reach out to my office. We have excellent connections with a leasing agent who can help you find the perfect space for your business. There are still so many exciting developments on the horizon for Babcock Ranch in the coming years. Two hotels, each with 125 beds are scheduled to be built along with a 180 bed hospital through Tampa General. Additionally, a satellite campus for Florida Gulf Coast University is on the way, further enhancing the community’s educational offerings. And that’s not all.
There’s a significant amount of retail coming to Midtown, which will add even more convenience and variety to the area. The State Road 31 project has also begun, which will widen the road and make it much safer for residents and visitors. We’ll also be seeing fire, EMS and sheriff’s offices opening right here in town soon, bringing essential services even closer to home. With all these developments, Babcock Ranch is shaping up to be an even more vibrant, connected, and well-equipped community for years to come. It truly is an exciting time to be a resident of Babcock Ranch. Watching this town unfold over the past five years has been incredibly satisfying. I remember when it was just Founders Square and a few neighborhoods with only three builders to choose from. Now we have over 20 neighborhoods and nine builders, and Babcock Ranch is still less than 20% built out.
The next 10 to 15 years are going to be even more amazing as this community continues to grow. Hopefully you’re enjoying this video so far. If you want to learn more about Babcock Ranch, my team has some fantastic resources to help you. First, check out our new website at babcockranchnewhomes.com, we have great blog articles covering topics like schools in the area, HOA fees, real-time pricing on various home models, and much more. Second, if you’d like to get a deeper understanding of the town before visiting, you can always schedule a Zoom call with a member of my team at talkbabcockranch.com. Now, if you’re ready to explore Babcock Ranch in person and want Team John Garuti to guide you every step of the way, you can go and schedule a tour right now at tourbabcockranch.com. And lastly, for those burning questions or a chance to hear different perspectives, head over to Facebook and join our group, Moving to Babcock Ranch, where you can connect with current residents and get valuable insights beyond just Team John Garuti.
Let us know how we can assist in making Babcock Ranch your new home. To wrap up this video, I’m going to give you my unfiltered predictions for the real estate market in 2025. My prediction is that the market will continue to favor buyers throughout the year. If you’re thinking about buying, I believe listing prices will continue to slide a bit and builders will still be negotiating and offering incentives all year long. The main factor impacting home affordability right now is the high mortgage rates. So buyers, keep an eye on those rates. Once they dip below 6%, you’ll see activity pick up as more buyers jump into the market, and that’s when pricing will start to bottom out. If rates drop into the low to mid 5% range, I think builders will stop negotiating as much because their interest rates tend to be 1.5 to 2% lower than the fed rate.
Right now, with rates close to 7%, builders have the leverage to buy rates down to 5%. But once we see those normal rates around 5.5%, builder rates could drop under 4%, and when that happens, I expect builder sales to pick up dramatically. That means the days of negotiating will start to dwindle. Now, for home sellers out there, your property needs to stand out. When pricing your home for the market, make sure you are not only comparing it to the resales, but also keeping a close eye on what the builders are offering. If your home doesn’t have standout upgrades or defining features that catch a buyer’s eye, you’ll be competing on price as long as the market remains buyer favorable. It’s a competitive market, but there are plenty of opportunities for both buyers and sellers if you stay informed and work with the right team.
That’s a wrap for today. As always, we’re bringing you the real unfiltered advice you need, but make sure to get connected with Team John Garuti right away. Real estate markets change, and one thing I can promise is that we’ll keep you up to date as the market shifts here in Babcock Ranch and throughout southwest Florida. If you have any questions, don’t hesitate to reach out to us at info@swfloridarealestate.com or give us a call on our YouTube line at (239) 842-9956. Thank you for taking the time to watch this video. We hope to meet you in person soon, and who knows, maybe we’ll call you neighbor one day.
